Mexico is the Largest International Air Market from the United States. It should come as no Surprise.
The United States has a special relationship with Mexico. They are our next-door neighbor, our closest trading partner, and Mexicans are (by far) the largest immigrant group in the United States. But how does that translate to air travel? What are the trends from US cities to Mexico?
In this article, we will break down US-Mexico travel trends by specifically focusing on non-leisure-oriented routes. We will break down markets in Mexico by their biggest O&D points in the US to determine trends.
The Current State of the US-Mexico Air Market
The US-Mexico air market is a large one. Between May 2024 and May 2025, it averaged 51,908 daily passengers in each direction. That is the equivalent of 173 widebody 777 aircraft! But the travel patterns between the US and Mexico are as diverse as both countries themselves. As this is a deep dive into the VFR (travel for the purposes of visiting friends and relatives) nature of the market, we will be excluding leisure travel in this analysis. But how much of the US-Mexico market is leisure?
If we define the leisure markets in Mexico as: Acapulco (ACA), Cancun (CUN), Cozumel (CZM), Huatulco (HUX), Merida (MID), Mazatlan (MZT), Puerto Vallarta (PVR), Puerto Escondido (PXM), San Jose del Cabo (SJD), Tulum (TQO), Zihuatenajo (ZIH), and Manzanillo (ZLO), 27,023 of the 51,908 daily passengers between the US and Mexico are bound for leisure-based markets. This accounts for 52.1% of travel between the two countries. Of these, CUN is the largest with 15,153 passengers daily each way. This is followed by SJD with 5,451, and PVR with 3,703.
Excluding the leisure markets outlined above, the 10 largest US cities with demand for Mexico are below. Airports within the same metropolitan area are included:
- Los Angeles (LAX): 3,062
- Chicago (ORD/MDW): 2,584
- Houston (IAH/HOU) 1,805
- New York City (JGK/LGA/EWR): 1,582
- San Francisco (SFO/OAK): 1,465
- Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW/DAL): 1,161
- Miami (MIA/FLL/PBI): 1,158
- Las Vegas (LAS): 1,070
- San Antonio (SAT): 919
- Orlando (MCO): 809
The Mexican Community in the United States
The demand for air travel between the US and Mexico should mirror the Mexican immigrant population in the US. In the metropolitan areas where there are a large number of Mexican immigrants, we will see demand for air travel. As of 2023, there were 10,918,205 Mexican immigrants in the United States. By metropolitan area, the largest populations were:
- Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim, CA: 1,390,272
- Houston/Pasadena/The Woodlands, TX: 594,917
- Chicago/Naperville/Elgin, IL/IN: 590,539
- Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington, TX: 576,470
- Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, CA: 568,060
- Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler, AZ: 338,553
- San Diego/Chula Vista/Carlsbad, CA: 301,118
- New York/Newark/Jersey City, NY/NJ: 278,929
- San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont, CA: 228,051
- McAllen/Mission/Edinburg, TX: 212,024
Largest US-Mexico O&D City Pairs: What are the Trends?
Below are the O&D market sizes from US Cities to Mexican Cities. Market sizes are non-directionally averaged between May 2024 and May 2025. The goal is not only to gain visibility in the US-Mexico market, but to learn about the Mexican communities in the United States.
Below are the 10 largest O&D markets between the US and Mexico City. The top 10 markets do not necessarily correspond to the Mexican population sizes in the US. While there may be a leisure component, MEX is not considered a leisure destination. This implies that business travel is a significant component of travel to Mexico. These numbers include not just traffic between the US and Mexico City’s main airport (MEX), but also between the US and Mexico City’s secondary airport (NLU).
- Los Angeles (LAX): 1,005
- New York City (JFK): 854
- Chicago (ORD): 845
- Miami (MIA): 787
- Houston (IAH): 763
- Las Vegas (LAS): 466
- Orlando (MCO): 449
- San Francisco (SFO): 432
- Dallas (DFW): 416
- San Antonio (SAT): 363
Below are the top 10 city pairs between the US and GDL. It is in GDL and MTY that we start to see geographic trends emerge.
- Los Angeles (LAX): 1,250
- Chicago (ORD): 480
- Fresno (FAT): 413
- Oakland (OAK): 367
- San Jose (SJC): 352
- Sacramento (SMF): 336
- Las Vegas (LAS): 332
- Houston (IAH): 271
- Dallas (DFW): 244
- Ontario (ONT): 213
Below are the top 10 city pairs between the US and MTY. Just as GDL has a strong California bias, MTY skews towards Texas. However, unlike GDL, we see city pairs with fewer Mexican immigrants show up in the top 10. This implies there is a significant business component to MTY travel, similar to MEX.
- Houston (IAH): 288
- San Antonio (SAT): 196
- Dallas (DFW): 171
- Las Vegas (LAS): 170
- Chicago (ORD): 163
- Los Angeles (LAX): 106
- Miami (MIA): 81
- Orlando (MCO): 79
- Detroit (DTW): 59
- Denver (DEN): 41
Looking at Demand to More Regional Cities...
Below are the top 5 markets, to some smaller markets between the US and Mexico.
Leon, Guanajato (BJX)
- Houston (IAH): 125
- Chicago (ORD): 115
- Oakland (OAK): 106
- Chicago (MDW): 105
- Los Angeles (LAX): 101
Santiago de Queretaro, Queretaro (QRO)
- Houston (IAH): 115
- Dallas (DFW): 72
- Chicago (ORD): 58
- San Antonio (SAT): 49
- Detroit (DTW): 39
Morelia, Michoacan (MLM)
- Chicago (MDW): 182
- Oakland (OAK): 126
- Chicago (ORD): 123
- Los Angeles (LAX): 98
- San Jose (SJC): 85
Ciudad de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes (AGU)
- Chicago (MDW): 93
- Los Angeles (LAX): 86
- Houston (IAH): 16
- Dallas (DFW): 13
- Detroit (DTW): 8
Ciudad de Oaxaca, Oaxaca (OAX)
- Los Angeles (LAX): 94
- Dallas (DFW): 23
- San Francisco (SFO): 19
- Chicago (ORD): 16
- Houston (IAH): 16
Ciudad de San Luis Potosi, San Luis Potosi (SLP)
- Houston (IAH): 28
- Dallas (DFW): 16
- Chicago (ORD): 15
- Detroit (DTW): 11
- Orlando (MCO): 8
Heroica Veracruz, Veracruz (VER)
- Houston (IAH): 32
- Chicago (ORD): 19
- Los Angeles (LAX): 16
- Orlando (MCO): 11
- Miami (MIA): 10
Mapping Demand by US Metro Area
Below is a visual representation of the largest markets from each US city. As MEX is the largest market for each US origin point (sans LAX), the maps will display MEX plus the next six largest markets from that city.
Los Angeles-Mexico
Chicago-Mexico
Houston-Mexico
Dallas/Fort Worth-Mexico
San Francisco/Oakland-Mexico
San Antonio-Mexico
What does the data show us?
The travel patterns between the US and Mexico are as diverse as the countries themselves. It’s easy to look at places in the US with large Mexican populations and think of Mexican immigrants as coming from a singular place. However, in reality, Mexico is a diverse country comprising people with a wide range of needs and desires. When Mexicans come to the US, where they settle largely depends on their place of origin. So what conclusions can we draw?
1) Demand between the US and Mexico City does not follow a specific pattern.
Mexico City is akin to New York City. Its demand spreads far and wide due to its massive size and economy. Even cities with smaller Mexican immigrant populations create demand and offer flights to Mexico City. It is truly Mexico’s global city. There will always be demand for business, VFR, and leisure travel to MEX!
2) While Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Leon have widespread demand, they are geographically biased towards certain parts of the US.
GDL may be biased towards California and the West Coast just as MTY is towards Texas, but there is still wide demand for both places. The same can be said of BJX, which is biased specifically towards Houston, Chicago, and Los Angeles but still has demand all over the US. What this shows us is that, while people from those regions might settle in certain parts of the US, they are still big business and/or leisure destinations, which would draw people from other parts of the US as well.
3) Morelia, Oaxaca, and Aguascalientes bias towards California
These regions are not big business centers, and only Oaxaca has any leisure component to it. This would imply that most people from these parts of Mexico settle in California (or Chicago).
4) Queretaro, San Luis Potosí, and Veracruz bias towards Texas.
Like the above, Queretaro, San Luis Potosí, and Veracruz are not big business centers and have minimal leisure components to them. This implies that people from these regions of Mexico are likely to settle in Texas.
5) Chicago has the most diverse profile of demand from Mexico.
Chicago is unique. Unlike Texas and California, which have many points within them and nearby, Chicago is an island of sorts. It is also quite far from the US-Mexico border, meaning bus transport is less likely to dampen air demand figures to Mexico. Still, unlike even Los Angeles or Houston, there is no part of Mexico where Chicago is not a source of significant demand.
The relationship between the United States and Mexico is a special one, and nothing makes that relationship more special than our people. Understanding where people travel and why they travel is a valuable tool in understanding this relationship. Thanks for reading!