Delta Air Lines (DL) has slowly been making a play for dominance in Austin.
Between May of 2022 and May of 2025, DL has grown from 1,093,179 to 1,681,947 onboarding passengers at Austin (AUS). That is a growth rate of 35.0% in just three years.
But they are not the first to give this a go. American Airlines (AA) tried to build up AUS in a frenzied, almost panic-like fashion. This approach was hardly successful as AA’s experiment at AUS was short-lived. Given this, what makes DL different? How will they succeed where AA failed?
Perhaps in the post-pandemic world, AA thought it saw an opportunity in Austin to become a dominant carrier in the market. In some ways, it wasn’t a terrible bet. Austin is a growing city with a wealthy population and a tech-centered economy with a propensity for travel. But this did not translate into success for AA.
AA's selection of destinations and the speed at which they were launched and cancelled didn't give the Austin market time to react
AA launched a lot of destinations in a short period of time. Many of these went head-to-head with WN in markets where they had been established for years. The graph below shows the load factors on AA and WN on all routes they competed in the year of 2023.
The first thing that stands out is just how many routes AA was trying to compete with WN on. AA was competing with WN on 25 of the 42 routes it was flying. In 2019, AA only flew to 8 different cities from AUS and only competed on 2 with WN (LAX and PHX).
The picture of why AA’s foray into the AUS focus city starts to emerge with this data. However, it still could have potentially worked if AA was going to play the long game with the market and if AA was filling the planes with O&D as opposed to connections.
In 2023, AUS had an average of 7,011 passengers flying AA daily each way. Of these, 996 (or 14.2%) were transiting at AUS to other cities. That in itself doesn’t seem like a lot, but when we take out AA’s hub cities (DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, LAX, PHX, and ORD), we find that 660 of the 2,665 passengers on AA at AUS were connecting. What this tells us is that roughly 24.8% of the work AA was doing in AUS was duplicating what was already being done (more efficiently) at DFW.
The combination of the choice of destinations, the speed at which they were rolled out, and the duplication of traffic flows in combination was the reason AA was not successful at AUS.
What is the current state of Delta's operation in Austin?
Some basic facts about DL’s current operation at AUS:
- Delta serves/will serve 27 destinations from Austin: 25 domestic and 2 in Mexico.
- Between May 2024 and May 2025, DL averaged an 81.81% load factor at AUS.
- As of Q2 of 2025, DL has surpassed AA to become the 2nd largest airline in Austin after WN. Still, WN is more than double the size of DL at AUS.
- Between May 2024 and May 2025, DL grew by 12.8% in Austin. This is compared to a 4.7% decline from WN and a 26.9% decline from AA.
Beyond service to their hubs, Delta’s focus at AUS seems to be on a few fronts:
- Covering the largest domestic O&D markets, but focusing on those less saturated to begin with. The eventual goal will, no doubt, be to connect AUS with all major O&D centers.
- Connecting AUS to markets where DL is still strong (MEM, CVG, RDU, etc.).
- Not duplicating connections over AUS can be done less cost-effectively and more efficiently at hubs like ATL, MSP, SLC, or DTW. This last point was an issue for AA as it was duplicating some of what was being done at DFW in AUS.
Where does Delta go from here?
As gates permit (which is its own can of worms), DL will continue to build Austin, but it is likely going to be a slow process with a few adds every year as opposed to a blitz of new routes. Only DL knows what they are going to do next, but we can look at the data to see what might be some good next steps for DL to take in Austin.
Austin as an international hub?
The biggest international destinations from AUS, by daily passengers each way (PDEW) across all airlines as of May 2025, were:
- Cancun (CUN): 291
- London (LHR): 239
- San Jose del Cabo (SJD): 132
- Toronto (YYZ): 122
- Mexico City (MEX): 95
- Vancouver (YVR): 62
- Amsterdam (AMS): 58
- Frankfurt (FRA): 54
- Paris (CDG): 51
- San Jose (SJO): 39
From the above, many airlines already fly these routes, including DL and two of its partners (AeroMexico and KLM). Of these, only two are unserved: Paris and San Jose. To get a better idea of what opportunities may exist, below are the top 10 international markets where AUS currently has no service.
- Paris (CDG): 51
- Tokyo (NRT/HND): 51
- San Jose (SJO): 39
- Puerto Vallarta (PVR): 39
- Rome (FCO): 38
- Seoul (ICN): 37
- Dublin (DUB): 34
- Sao Paulo (GRU): 34
- Madrid (MAD): 33
- Liberia (LIR): 30
On paper, it may seem like there are many good opportunities for DL to serve some of these international destinations from Austin, but I would actually argue the opposite. One has to consider how Delta would be better off serving these destinations at AUS, rather than providing more service from larger hubs with better traffic flows, such as ATL, DTW, MSP, or a western hub.
AUS may get another international route or two from DL or its JV partners (such as CDG on AF or DL, or ICN on KE), but it’s probably not going to be a major international station for DL. Any connecting traffic would flow better over their other hubs. Geographically, AUS is well-positioned as a gateway to Mexico and Central America, but this is unlikely for several reasons.
- Unlike other hubs in Texas, Austin has no major O&D base to Mexico and Central America. AUS-Mexico/Central America has 896 passengers daily each way (PDEW). That may seem like a lot, but over half of it is just to CUN, SJD, and MEX. All three of those stations are served currently by DL or AM. By comparison, DFW-Mexico/Central America is 2,893 PDEW, and Houston-Mexico/Central America is 4,581 PDEW.
- DL has a close partnership with and has had a joint venture with AM. Their hub at Mexico City (MEX) is perfectly positioned to funnel traffic from major US markets. For smaller US markets connecting to smaller Mexican markets, DL offers connectivity over ATL and DTW.
- Geographically, ATL is similarly placed for connections to Central and South America as AUS. AUS is slightly closer to Guatemala City and San Pedro Sula, but farther from places like Panama and almost all of South America. ATL will likely always be a more efficient (and cheaper) place for connections to the region.
The opportunities for Delta in Austin are domestic.
Below are the largest unserved (by DL) domestic markets.
- Chicago (ORD): 670
- Newark (EWR): 649
- Phoenix (PHX): 626
- San Diego (SAN): 538
- Miami (MIA): 393
- San Jose (SJC): 344
- Baltimore (BWI): 337
- Philadelphia (PHL): 310
- Washington, DC (IAD): 300
- Portland (PDX): 289
These routes are already served by other airlines, but if DL wants to be the airline of choice for the Austin market, it is going to have to venture into crowded markets from AUS. Unlike AA, DL doesn’t have to attempt to do this all at once just for the sake of doing it. Routes like ORD and PHX may be a ways off because multiple airlines do fly them, but routes like IAD or PDX may be good short-term targets as only one other carrier flies those routes.
Delta is playing the long game
Delta has been adding destinations to AUS more methodically over the past 4 years. Looking at their strategy, it is noticeably different from AA’s.
While DL will still be competing with WN on 17 of their 27 routes, the speed at which they are rolling them out is much more controlled, and there is no other DL hub in the South Central region of the United States. Regarding the competition DL faces with WN in AUS, 5 cities are DL hubs, and another 4 are cities that are in the top 10 O&D markets for AUS across all airlines. This is in contrast to AA, which was, from the earliest days of its buildup, trying to compete with WN on markets like ELP, STL, and MCI, where connections would come more into play due to a smaller O&D.
It’s almost as if AA tried to make AUS a hub instantly. They did not take the time to develop the routes that they enacted before launching new ones and later retracting them. I don’t know that they fully appreciated that some of what they were trying to accomplish in AUS was duplicating what they were already doing at DFW.
DL, on the other hand, seems to be looking at the long game and taking it slow. DL has tried to add a few feeder routes to AUS, but they are low-risk markets due to their short distance. Midland (MAF), Harlingen (HRL), and McAllen (MFE) were served exclusively from AUS to connect them to DL’s network in AUS. While MAF and HRL did not work, MFE seems to be doing well for DL. AUS is not ready to be a connecting hub with feeder markets just yet, but as DL’s operation at AUS expands, I would not rule out some feeder routes being revisited.
While DL, no doubt, will benefit from not having another hub close by, this more cautious approach will probably be more successful in the long run.
Brandon
September 1, 2025Interesting to see Delta go after this southern potential focus city. If they hope to win over the discerning population of Austin, they may experience a ceiling in loyalty due to their reliance on suncontractor E175 aircraft. While Skywest has an order for replacements to begin delivery in 2027, the Delta E175 experience is very subpar to the mainline standard they most frequently market.
flyinghoustonian
September 2, 2025As a former Austin resident, and one who travels there at least twice a year, the airport infrastructure is certainly a limiting factor in all airline’s growth. Austin has always been behind the power curve with projects sadly. The author does a good job of noting AUS’ potential for more domestic flying by DL; and with DL’s measured strategy (as seen in other hublet/focus city builds) one presumes they will be successful. That said I posit the demand will stay domestic as Austin and its various businesses and industry do not drive international traffic like DFW, or certainly not as much as Houston, which has more international traffic in a week than AUS does in a month. I suspect DL will focus on marketing of the next few years to grow brand awareness while the airport dithers with its build out. I also suspect DL will be successful as long as they are willing to take on the early loss-leaders as they play the long game.