On August 19, 2025, EVA Airlines (BR) took to social media to tease a new destination and partnership
EVA took to social media to tease both a new (presumably) US destination and a partnership agreement. So, what are the possibilities?
Potential new destination, what are the possibilities?
There is still some potential low-hanging fruit for a new flight from the US to Taipei (TPE) on BR. Below are the largest markets between the US and Southeast Asia, and Taiwan in combination. Data is from Cirium, averaged, non-directionally, per day, each way (PDEW). Based on travel data from May 2024 to May 2025.
- Los Angeles (LAX): 2,293
- San Francisco (SFO): 1,965
- New York City (JFK): 1,310
- Seattle (SEA): 682
- Chicago (ORD): 535
- Houston (IAH): 530
- Boston (BOS): 410
- Washington, DC: (397)
- Honolulu (HNL): 348
- Dallas (DFW): 327
In the top 10 markets between the US and Southeast Asia/Taiwan, most are heavily served with flights to Asia. Counting Hong Kong (which doesn’t technically qualify as Southeast Asia but whose traffic flows from the US serves the market), only one market on the top 10 list has no flights to Southeast Asia: IAD. However, as Russian Airspace is still closed, this may add issues to flights from TPE to the US East Coast, making only JFK worth overcoming. I honestly don’t know whether or not that is the case. Because of that possibility, we may need to dive deeper to think about what BR’s next move in the US might be.
IAD aside, the largest markets between the United States and Southeast Asia/Taiwan with no current service to the region are:
- Atlanta (ATL): 250
- Las Vegas (LAS): 247
- Orlando (MCO): 231
- Miami (MIA): 206
- Denver (DEN): 157
- San Diego (SAN): 156
Looking at the list, ATL is the only one that has more than one daily flight to Asia. It wouldn’t be my first choice if I were BR due to competition and market loyalty to Delta (DL) and Korean Air (KE), but they have shown they are not afraid to enter a market with mid-level demand in the region, with no hub-level partners, and take on all comers ala DFW.
Of the markets on the list, LAS stands out the most. Las Vegas is a very easy market to stimulate because of the large tourist demand, and the area is home to a large number of people from Southeast Asia.
DEN and SAN both present interesting options. DEN is Southwest Airlines (WN) current largest operation, which can come into play if the rumors of BR and WN starting a relationship turn out to be true. But its altitude presents certain challenges to long-haul flying, and the market is not very big. SAN would be easier to stimulate because, like LAS, it has appeal to tourists and has a large number of people from Southeast Asia living there. But does BR want to overfly their largest US station to serve SAN? I don’t think that would stand in their way if they wish to serve SAN.
Does a potential tie-up with Southwest play into the selection of BR's next US destination?
We won’t know the answer to that until BR reveals their plans in the upcoming days. My thoughts are below:
- If the new US route is unrelated to any new announcement relating to partnerships, IAD seems like a slam dunk. Unserved to the region, sizable market, and large Southeast Asian population in the area.
- If the new US route and a potential new partnership announcement are related, LAS seems like a plasuable add. An easy market to stimulate, a decent-sized demand to build on, and a large SE Asian population in the area. This might also be an interesting way to serve the region without having to venture into Phoenix (PHX). PHX-TPE, while a new lucrative opportunity and a large market size, would be crowded with three carriers all flying from PHX to TPE.
- If BR and WN decide to partner, DEN presents an interesting opportunity in itself: draw upon both United/Star Alliance and Southwest flyers in the region. The main issue here is that the flight would be heavily reliant on connections in DEN as opposed to serving a market like LAS or IAD, which would be less reliant on them. DEN-SE Asia probably would not stimulate as easily as IAD or LAS due to the smaller-sized market and population from SE Asia.
- What about BWI? Large WN station and not far from IAD. I have my doubts on this one. That is a long route to fly for connections via WN, and the market between the DC area and Asia overwhelmingly prefers IAD. The other issue is going to be timing. To fly from TPE to the US East Coast while still capitalizing on the main connection banks at TPE, the flight would need to leave TPE no earlier than 7 pm local time. That means an arrival at BWI close to 10 pm. That would not leave much room for connections at BWI on an eastbound flight.
So, what's it going to be?
We will find out soon enough. BR has shown it is willing to think outside the box and make moves that are not predictable. Time will tell what this one will be!